What the First Primary Voting Numbers Are Telling Us
- 38th District Republican Club
- 2 days ago
- 7 min read
We now have the first real voter data from Delaware’s September 15 Primary Election. This data will continue to be updated, giving us a chance to watch how the primary unfolds and see who is actually turning out. To be clear, these numbers do not tell us HOW anyone voted. They tell us who has voted, their party registration, where they live, and whether they voted early or absentee.
There are two things that really jumped out at me.
ONE: Sussex Republicans are producing nearly 60% of all Republican primary votes cast statewide so far.
TWO: But perhaps the biggest number of all is statewide absentee voting:
1,663 Republican absentee votes
6,575 Democratic absentee votes
Of all Republican votes already cast in this primary, only 39.4% were absentee, compared with 53.4% of Democratic votes. Put another way, more than half of the Democrats who have already voted did so by absentee ballot, compared with fewer than four in ten Republicans. That is a significant difference in how the two parties are voting.
The Statewide Picture
As of the September 4 data, 16,559 Delawareans had already voted:
Early | Absentee | Total | |
Democrats | 5,738 | 6,575 | 12,313 |
Republicans | 2,562 | 1,663 | 4,225 |
No Party–AVR | 21 | 0 | 21 |
Democrats account for about 74% of the votes already cast statewide, compared with about 25.5% Republican. That doesn't mean Democrats are “winning” anything based on these numbers alone. These are separate party primaries with different races driving turnout.
Sussex is doing the heavy lifting for Republican turnout
Sussex County has already recorded 2,512 Republican primary votes — nearly 60% of all Republican votes cast statewide so far. And here is what makes that even more remarkable: New Castle County actually has more registered Republicans than Sussex. Yet Sussex alone is producing the majority of Republican primary turnout. In other words, a county with about 39% of Delaware's registered Republicans is generating nearly 60% of the Republican votes cast so far. So it looks like the saying that Sussex County determines the winners of the Primaries is holding true.
Now, this may be a strong Republican showing for Sussex, but it doesn't mean Democrats aren't turning out here too. In fact, when we get down to our own 38th District, that becomes pretty clear.
Take a close look at the 38th
RD 38 | Early | Absentee | Total |
Republican | 310 | 157 | 467 |
Democratic | 402 | 291 | 693 |
There are already 467 Republican primary voters in the 38th, but there are also 693 Democratic voters. Democrats currently lead in both early voting, 402 to 310, and absentee voting, 291 to 157. That is something worth noticing in a district where Republicans have more registered voters than democrats. The 41st shows us something else: Republicans lead early voting there 307 to 122, while Democrats lead absentee voting 184 to 66.
Now look at the 41st
The 41st is interesting because Republicans are actually ahead overall, but when we separate early and absentee voting, we see two very different patterns:
RD 41 | Early | Absentee | Total |
Republican | 307 | 66 | 373 |
Democratic | 122 | 184 | 306 |
Republicans lead overall, 373 to 306, driven by a very large advantage in early voting: 307 Republicans compared with 122 Democrats. But then absentee voting completely reverses the picture, with 184 Democrats compared with only 66 Republicans. That's almost three Democratic absentee votes for every Republican absentee vote in the 41st.
To me, the 41st may be the clearest illustration of what these first numbers are showing us. Republicans in our area are making substantial use of early in-person voting, while Democrats are making much heavier use of absentee voting.
There are still a lot of absentee ballots outstanding
Statewide, there are 19,847 absentee records associated with this primary: 15,435 Democratic compared with 4,325 Republican. So far, 6,546 Democratic ballots and 1,656 Republican ballots are marked accepted. And the gap isn't likely to disappear simply as outstanding ballots come back. Even in the unlikely scenario that every absentee record ultimately became an accepted vote, the absentee electorate would still be approximately 78% Democratic and 22% Republican.
What is haunting is that we've seen this pattern before, since 2020, when Republican Julianne Murray came within just 6,516 votes of Democrat John Carney in the statewide in-person machine vote — 159,653 to 166,169. But the absentee/Vote-by-Mail count was 126,734 for Carney compared with only 30,659 for Murray — more than a 96,000-vote difference - the nearly four-to-one ratio is almost exactly what we are seeing again in this primary: 6,575 Democratic absentee votes compared with 1,663 Republican absentee votes. Delaware Department of Elections — 2020 General Election Results
So this story is far from finished. We'll continue looking at the data as it is updated to see whether these patterns hold, what happens with the outstanding absentee ballots, and how turnout changes as we get closer to September 15.
Biggest Takeaway and What Has to be the Game Plan?
Republicans need to get out to vote, and at this point, for this primary, the only way to do that is by Word of Mouth - get on the horn, walk the streets, tell you friends, neighbors, family, to get out to vote asap during Early Voting, don't wait until September 15th.
EARLY VOTING DATES, TIMES, LOCATIONS
As of today, September 5, the remaining early voting dates and hours are:
Tuesday, September 8: 7:00 AM – 7:00 PM
Wednesday, September 9 – Sunday, September 13: 11:00 AM – 7:00 PM
No early voting September 6 or 7.
September 13 is the final day of early voting.
Primary Election Day is Tuesday September 15th
For the 38th, the convenient early-voting locations are:
Millville Community Center, 32517 Dukes Drive, Millville
Roxana Fire Hall, 35943 Zion Church Road, Frankford
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Please note an important change for our next 38th District meeting: we are moving from Monday to TUESDAY, September 8th, and meeting at the Ocean View Community Center.
The South Coastal Library is unexpectedly closed, so we had to make a quick change. Please help us spread the word! We have a lot to talk about!
TUESDAY Evening 9/8 — Ocean View Community Center
32 West Avenue, Ocean View, DE 19970
Meet & Greet: 6:00 PM | Meeting: 6:30 PM
Please Remember: TUESDAY at Ocean View Community Center
Location: Ocean View Community Center
32 West Avenue, Ocean View, DE 19970
Meet & Greet: 6:00 PM
Meeting Begins: 6:30 PM
With the primary underway, our local races heating up and important discussions taking place about our schools, there is plenty happening in the 38th.
Come out, get informed, meet your neighbors and be part of it.
We’ll see you Tuesday!
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Be Sure to Vote in the Republican Primary September 15 or Early Voting!
Dr. Mike Katz for U.S. Senate and Earl Cooper for U.S. Congress are the only candidates who can beat Chris Coons and Sarah McBride—but first, they need your vote in the Republican Primary. Vote early September 2–13, or vote on Primary Election Day, September 15. Delaware is ready for a new direction.
Dr. Mike Katz is a pediatric anesthesiologist, former Delaware State Senator, and small business owner. He has spent his career caring for Delaware families and serving his community. He's running to bring common-sense leadership, fiscal responsibility, secure borders, and government that puts people before politics. Please vote for Dr. Mike Katz in the Republican Primary on September 15.
You can also contact the Katz campaign at info@drmikekatz.com.
Rev. Earl Cooper is a pastor, small business owner, and community leader who has spent decades serving Delaware families. Through his work creating jobs, restoring neighborhoods, and expanding opportunities for homeownership and workforce training, he has dedicated his life to strengthening communities. He's running for Congress to bring faith, integrity, and common-sense leadership to Washington. He needs your vote in the Republican Primary on September 15.
See you TUESDAY, September 8, at our next 38th District and Southern Delaware Republican Club at the Ocean View Community Centr, 6:30pm.
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If you like what we do and would like to help support our mission, please send us a donation. We thank you for choosing to keep the 38th District Republican Club a success and a beaming light of conservative values in Delaware!
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Do you want to get more involved locally? The 38th District includes Bethany Beach, South Bethany, Fenwick Island, Ocean View, Millville, Selbyville and Frankford. YOU can make a difference! Email info@38thdrcp.com for more information. Also, sign up for the State GOP e-Newsletters here.
Listen to WGMD 92.7 and 98.5 for local news!
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July 38th Club Meeting CANCELLED July
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